A Recession Trigger and Investment Strategy
The U.S. housing market is flashing warning signs, and investors would be wise to take notice. Declining housing starts, soaring mortgage rates, and inventory imbalances are aligning to signal a potential recession, with implications for equity markets and portfolio resilience. This article analyzes housing’s role as a leading economic indicator and outlines defensive investment strategies to navigate the coming slowdown.
Housing’s Recessionary Signals: Data and Disruption
The U.S. Census Bureau’s May 2025 report reveals housing starts plummeted to a five-year low, dropping 9.8% to an annualized rate of 1.256 million units. Multifamily construction, a key driver of urban investment, fell 30.4%, while single-family starts stagnated at…
